Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–0 Nizhny Novgorod

Shinnik Yaroslavl

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod

I. Geloyan 78'

9/1/2018

First League · Round 9Stadion Shinnik (Yaroslavl')

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl33%

×Draw29%

Nizhny Novgorod37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.14

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.06

Nizhny Novgorod

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 58 away

1.16

creates per match

1.21

1.06

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.16

Nizhny Novgorod

1.21

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.06

Nizhny Novgorod

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

63%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Nizhny Novgorod

71%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

67%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

13%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

65%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

29%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

9%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

68%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

32%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

47%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 126 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.97 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.16 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.21 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

33%

level

29%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

37%

Nizhny Novgorod at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

E. Goshev← S. Antipin

60'

I. Geloyan← D. Samoylov

66'

V. Kamilov← O. Kozhemyakin

68'

A. Skvortsov← A. Simanov

74'

E. Bulia← S. Samodin

78'

I. Geloyan

79'

T. Ayupov← A. Khripkov

82'

L. Goglichidze← P. Ignatovich

84'

V. Sergeev← M. Palienko

Shinnik

Nizhny

99

Sysuev

24

Fedoriv

55

Morozov

90

▼

Khripkov

57

Abazov

92

Khayrullo

13

▼

Ignatovic

27

▼

Simanov

10

▼

Palienko

74

Fomin

11

Delkin

1

▼

3

2

94

77

11

14

8

▼

Kozhemyak

15

▼

Samoylov

9

Nizamutdi

22

▼

Samodin

Manager: A. Pobegalov

46'▲E. Goshev←▼S. Antipin

60'▲I. Geloyan←▼D. Samoylov

66'▲V. Kamilov←▼O. Kozhemyakin

74'▲E. Bulia←▼S. Samodin

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

97Goshev10Geloyan21Kamilov7Bulia17Pokidyshev19Nikulin27Aleynikov57Deobald99Matskharashvili43Polyakov

Manager: D. Cheryshev

68'▲A. Skvortsov←▼A. Simanov

79'▲T. Ayupov←▼A. Khripkov

82'▲L. Goglichidze←▼P. Ignatovich

84'▲V. Sergeev←▼M. Palienko

Nizhny Novgorod substitutes

19Skvortsov5Ayupov91Goglichidze14Sergeev1Anisimov4Abramov28Semeykin