Shimizu S-pulse vs Vissel Kobe

Shimizu S-pulse

Preview

05:00

Vissel Kobe

12/12/2026

J1 League · Round 19IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Big match

43%

Vissel Kobe

model favours

31%26%43%

Vissel Kobe score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

under 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse31%

×Draw26%

Vissel Kobe43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchVissel Kobe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.41

Shimizu S-pulse

1.16

Vissel Kobe

1.41

Vissel Kobe creates 22% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 27 away

1.17

creates per match

1.22

1.59

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.17

Vissel Kobe

1.22

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.59

Vissel Kobe

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Vissel Kobe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

57%

Shimizu S-pulse or Vissel Kobe

74%

Draw or Vissel Kobe

69%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

13%

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

69%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

32%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

11%

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

76%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

41%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

42%

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.17 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.16

Vissel Kobe attack 1.22 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

31%

level

26%

Vissel Kobe scores more

43%

Vissel Kobe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches
Vissel Kobe win just 29% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)
Shimizu S-pulse fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.