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Shimizu S-pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol — J1 League 2025

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
Preview
09:30
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
8/29/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 4IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Big match
48%
Kashiwa Reysol
model favours
28%24%48%

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse28%
×Draw24%
Kashiwa Reysol48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.27
Kashiwa Reysol
1.72

Kashiwa Reysol creates 35% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.47
Kashiwa Reysol
1.77

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.67
Kashiwa Reysol
1.08

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse-0.07on par
Kashiwa Reysol+0.23scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
52%
Shimizu S-pulse or Kashiwa Reysol
76%
Draw or Kashiwa Reysol
72%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
12%
Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
72%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
36%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
14%
Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
82%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
51%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
37%
Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.67 · 10 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.47 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.77 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
28%
level
24%
Kashiwa Reysol scores more
48%

Kashiwa Reysol at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kashiwa Reysol have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 40% of Kashiwa Reysol’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Shimizu S-pulse fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shimizu S-pulse
Balanced
Kashiwa Reysol
Attack-heavy
50%Possession55%
78%Pass accuracy81%
13.2Shots14.0
1.33xGBiggest gap1.64
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Shimizu S-pulseKashiwa Reysol

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Shimizu S-pulse
1
Draws
4
Kashiwa Reysol
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 40%
0–20–11–11–30–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
S-pulse
WLDLL
Reysol
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shimizu S-pulse face Kashiwa Reysol (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Shimizu S-pulse hosting Kashiwa Reysol. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shimizu S-pulse host Kashiwa Reysol at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.