Kashiwa Reysol 1–0 Shimizu S-pulse: Result & Stats

Kashiwa Reysol

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shimizu S-pulse

Y. Kakita 52'

5/6/2025

J1 League · Round 15Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Kashiwa Reysol48%

×Draw27%

Shimizu S-pulse26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kashiwa ReysolExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.98

Kashiwa Reysol

1.44

Shimizu S-pulse

0.98

Kashiwa Reysol creates 47% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

1.13

0.83

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Kashiwa Reysol

1.50

Shimizu S-pulse

1.13

allows per match

Kashiwa Reysol

0.83

Shimizu S-pulse

1.39

+0.50scores more than expected

finishing

-0.70scores less than expected

finishing

Kashiwa Reysol+0.50scores more

Shimizu S-pulse-0.70scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashiwa Reysol ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kashiwa Reysol or draw

74%

Kashiwa Reysol or Shimizu S-pulse

73%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

52%

Winning margin

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+

23%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals

76%

Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals

42%

Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals

18%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

62%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

26%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)

65%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.83 · 5 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.50 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.13 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kashiwa Reysol scores more

48%

level

27%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

26%

Kashiwa Reysol at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

T. Inukai

Kashiwa Reysol · D

7.9

Match Events

18'

Zento UnoCard reviewed

19'

Zento Uno

31'

Tomoya Inukai

46'

K. Kitagawa← A. Ahmedov

52'

58'

58'

68'

68'

K. Matsuzaki← H. Nakahara

72'

M. Watai← H. Nakama

72'

K. Kinoshita← Y. Kakita

75'

Yuto Yamada

76'

Douglas Tanque← Z. Uno

88'

Douglas TanqueGoal cancelled

90+7'

E. Shirai← Y. Yamada

90+11'

M. Yumiba← Y. Takahashi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KashiwaShimizu

Overview

59%Possession41%

9Total Shots14

0.91Expected Goals (xG)1.33

6Corners9

13Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots14

1On Target2

5Off Target7

3Blocked5

4Inside Box11

5Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

560Total Passes373

474Accurate Passes279

85%Pass Accuracy75%

Discipline

13Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Kashiwa Reysol vs Shimizu S-pulse

Kashiwa Reysol beat Shimizu S-pulse 1-0 in J1 League on May 6, 2025.

Goals: Y. Kakita (52').

Kashiwa Reysol controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium in Kashiwa.

Kashiwa Reysol vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Kashiwa Reysol vs Shimizu S-pulse