Kashiwa Reysol 3–1 Shimizu S-pulse: Result & Stats

Kashiwa Reysol

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Shimizu S-pulse

T. Ominami 58'

M. Hosoya 39'

Matheus Sávio 13'

E. Katayama 64'

5/29/2022

J1 League · Round 16SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Kashiwa Reysol51%

×Draw26%

Shimizu S-pulse23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kashiwa ReysolExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.93

Kashiwa Reysol

1.51

Shimizu S-pulse

0.93

Kashiwa Reysol creates 62% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

1.50

creates per match

1.03

0.83

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Kashiwa Reysol

1.50

Shimizu S-pulse

1.03

allows per match

Kashiwa Reysol

0.83

Shimizu S-pulse

1.52

+0.50scores more than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Kashiwa Reysol+0.50scores more

Shimizu S-pulse-0.28scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashiwa Reysol ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kashiwa Reysol or draw

77%

Kashiwa Reysol or Shimizu S-pulse

74%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

49%

Winning margin

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+

26%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals

78%

Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals

44%

Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals

19%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

61%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

24%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)

69%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.83 · 5 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.52 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.50 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.51

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kashiwa Reysol scores more

51%

level

26%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

23%

Kashiwa Reysol at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Hosoya

Kashiwa Reysol · F

7.9

Match Events

13'

Matheus Sávio↳ S. Toshima

39'

M. Hosoya↳ T. Koga

40'

Reon Yamahara

46'

B. Kololli← K. Nakayama

46'

D. Matsuoka← K. Nishizawa

58'

T. Ominami↳ M. Hosoya

60'

Oh Se-Hun← Thiago Santana

60'

E. Katayama← T. Kishimoto

64'

E. Katayama↳ Yoshinori Suzuki

75'

Y. Goto← R. Shirasaki

79'

Dodi← Matheus Sávio

85'

K. Mori← M. Hosoya

85'

H. Otani← S. Toshima

90+1'

H. Maie← T. Koyamatsu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KashiwaShimizu

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots16

3Corners4

6Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots16

5On Target7

6Off Target7

3Blocked2

9Inside Box12

5Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

488Total Passes490

407Accurate Passes405

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Kashiwa Reysol vs Shimizu S-pulse

Kashiwa Reysol beat Shimizu S-pulse 3-1 in J1 League on May 29, 2022.

Goals: Matheus Sávio (13'), M. Hosoya (39'), T. Ominami (58'), E. Katayama (64').

Kashiwa Reysol controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 16.

The match was played at SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium in Kashiwa.

Kashiwa Reysol vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Kashiwa Reysol vs Shimizu S-pulse