Shimizu S-pulse 0–1 Kashiwa Reysol: Result & Stats

Shimizu S-pulse

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kashiwa Reysol

H. Mitsumaru 53'

10/16/2021

J1 League · Round 32IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse28%

×Draw24%

Kashiwa Reysol47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchKashiwa Reysol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.67

Shimizu S-pulse

1.24

Kashiwa Reysol

1.67

Kashiwa Reysol creates 35% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 5 away

1.40

creates per match

1.77

1.56

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.40

Kashiwa Reysol

1.77

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.56

Kashiwa Reysol

1.08

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse-0.15scores less

Kashiwa Reysol+0.23scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

53%

Shimizu S-pulse or Kashiwa Reysol

76%

Draw or Kashiwa Reysol

72%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

12%

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

71%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

35%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

13%

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals

81%

Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals

50%

Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

38%

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.56 · 20 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.40 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.24

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.77 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

28%

level

24%

Kashiwa Reysol scores more

47%

Kashiwa Reysol at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Kim Seung-Gyu

Kashiwa Reysol · G

8.0

Match Events

23'

Takuma Ominami

53'

H. Mitsumaru↳ Y. Muto

60'

M. Mihara← K. Shiihashi

61'

Y. Kawai← R. Takeuchi

61'

K. Nakayama← K. Nishizawa

67'

M. Hosoya← Y. Muto

67'

H. Nakama← Matheus Sávio

69'

B. Kololli← N. Fujimoto

85'

A. Disaro← E. Katayama

85'

S. Toshima← Y. Kamiya

85'

Y. Takahashi← T. Koga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShimizuKashiwa

Overview

57%Possession43%

16Total Shots11

6Corners6

5Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots11

5On Target4

8Off Target5

3Blocked2

8Inside Box4

8Outside Box7

Passing

57%Possession43%

488Total Passes375

395Accurate Passes286

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2