Shimizu S-pulse 0–2 Kashiwa Reysol: Result & Stats

Shimizu S-pulse

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Kashiwa Reysol

S. Toshima 23'

T. Kubo 8'

6/28/2025

J1 League · Round 22IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse28%

×Draw24%

Kashiwa Reysol48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchKashiwa Reysol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.73

Shimizu S-pulse

1.27

Kashiwa Reysol

1.73

Kashiwa Reysol creates 36% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.47

creates per match

1.77

1.69

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.47

Kashiwa Reysol

1.77

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.69

Kashiwa Reysol

1.08

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse-0.25scores less

Kashiwa Reysol+0.23scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

52%

Shimizu S-pulse or Kashiwa Reysol

76%

Draw or Kashiwa Reysol

72%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

12%

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

72%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

36%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

14%

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals

82%

Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals

52%

Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

37%

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.69 · 9 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.47 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.77 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

28%

level

24%

Kashiwa Reysol scores more

48%

Kashiwa Reysol at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

T. Kubo

Kashiwa Reysol · M

8.3

Match Events

8'

T. Kubo↳ M. Watai

10'

Nobuteru Nakagawa

23'

S. Toshima↳ T. Koyamatsu

56'

Wataru Harada

65'

H. Tanaka← H. Mitsumaru

65'

Diego← T. Koyamatsu

65'

Y. Segawa← M. Watai

67'

H. Nakahara← K. Matsuzaki

67'

S. Yajima← H. Hidaka

70'

M. Hosoya← Y. Kakita

76'

S. Kotake← Z. Uno

76'

K. Chiba← K. Kitagawa

78'

Capixaba

83'

R. Ohata← M. Brunetti

88'

Matheus Bueno

90+4'

S. Baba← N. Nakagawa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShimizuKashiwa

Overview

47%Possession53%

15Total Shots16

6Corners5

12Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots16

4On Target4

5Off Target6

6Blocked6

10Inside Box13

5Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

391Total Passes455

334Accurate Passes394

85%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2