Shimizu S-pulse 3–1 Avispa Fukuoka: Result & Stats

Shimizu S-pulse

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Avispa Fukuoka

K. Matsuzaki 45', 3'

Matheus Bueno 45'

T. Miki 9' (pen)

4/20/2025

J1 League · Round 11IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse33%

×Draw29%

Avispa Fukuoka38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchAvispa Fukuoka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.17

Shimizu S-pulse

1.07

Avispa Fukuoka

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

1.15

creates per match

0.75

1.59

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.15

Avispa Fukuoka

0.75

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.59

Avispa Fukuoka

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Avispa Fukuoka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

62%

Shimizu S-pulse or Avispa Fukuoka

71%

Draw or Avispa Fukuoka

67%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

13%

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

66%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

29%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

9%

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals

69%

Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals

33%

Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

46%

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

Avispa Fukuoka away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.15 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Avispa Fukuoka attack 0.75 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

33%

level

29%

Avispa Fukuoka scores more

38%

Avispa Fukuoka at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

K. Matsuzaki

Shimizu S-pulse · F

8.7

Match Events

3'

K. Matsuzaki↳ Capixaba

7'

Kazuki FujimotoPenalty confirmed

9'

T. MikiPenalty

17'

Koya Kitagawa

38'

Yota Maejima

39'

Matheus Bueno

45'

Matheus Bueno↳ K. Matsuzaki

45'

K. Matsuzaki↳ K. Kitazume

55'

Y. Iwasaki← Y. Maejima

61'

Y. Hashimoto← K. Fujimoto

61'

Wellington← S. Zahedi

68'

H. Nakahara← K. Matsuzaki

68'

M. Nishihara← Capixaba

79'

T. Kamijima← K. Konno

79'

M. Shigemi← S. Nago

81'

K. Haneda← K. Kitagawa

82'

Yuya Oki

88'

R. Yamahara← Y. Yoshida

88'

Douglas Tanque← T. Inui

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShimizuAvispa

Overview

38%Possession62%

7Total Shots13

0.85Expected Goals (xG)2.10

2Corners2

11Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots13

4On Target3

2Off Target8

1Blocked2

4Inside Box9

3Outside Box4

Passing

38%Possession62%

269Total Passes429

181Accurate Passes327

67%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka

Shimizu S-pulse beat Avispa Fukuoka 3-1 in J1 League on April 20, 2025.

Goals: K. Matsuzaki (3', 45'), T. Miki (9' pen), Matheus Bueno (45').

Avispa Fukuoka controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at IAI Stadium Nihondaira in Shizuoka.

Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka — J1 League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka