Avispa Fukuoka 3–2 Shimizu S-pulse: Result & Stats

Avispa Fukuoka

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Shimizu S-pulse

Y. Yamagishi 49', 42'

S. Nakamura 36'

Thiago Santana 60' (pen)

R. Yamahara 29'

9/17/2022

J1 League · Round 30Best Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka39%

×Draw27%

Shimizu S-pulse34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avispa FukuokaExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.17

Avispa Fukuoka

1.29

Shimizu S-pulse

1.17

Avispa Fukuoka creates 10% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 36 away

1.07

creates per match

1.03

1.30

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka

1.07

Shimizu S-pulse

1.03

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka

1.30

Shimizu S-pulse

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw

66%

Avispa Fukuoka or Shimizu S-pulse

73%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

61%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+

18%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals

72%

Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals

37%

Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals

14%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

69%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

33%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)

54%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.07 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more

39%

level

27%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

34%

Avispa Fukuoka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Y. Yamagishi

Avispa Fukuoka · F

8.7

Match Events

19'

Yoshinori Suzuki

29'

R. Yamahara↳ Thiago Santana

36'

S. Nakamura

42'

Y. Yamagishi↳ T. Shichi

44'

Yuya YamagishiGoal confirmed

49'

Y. Yamagishi↳ J. Croux

60'

Thiago SantanaPenalty

65'

Juanma Delgado← Lukian

70'

S. Tanabe← T. Kanamori

70'

K. Nakayama← Yago Pikachu

70'

Y. Suzuki← T. Inui

80'

T. Kishimoto← T. Hara

80'

K. Kitagawa← Carlinhos Júnior

86'

Jordy Croux

89'

Juanma Delgado

90+7'

K. Mikuni← Y. Yamagishi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvispaShimizu

Overview

33%Possession67%

9Total Shots8

3Corners5

22Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots8

6On Target4

2Off Target3

1Blocked1

5Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

33%Possession67%

199Total Passes410

125Accurate Passes329

63%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

22Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0

J1 League: Avispa Fukuoka 3–2 Shimizu S-pulse

Avispa Fukuoka beat Shimizu S-pulse 3-2 in J1 League on September 17, 2022.

Goals: R. Yamahara (29'), S. Nakamura (36'), Y. Yamagishi (42', 49'), Thiago Santana (60' pen).

Shimizu S-pulse controlled possession (67%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at Best Denki Stadium in Fukuoka.

Avispa Fukuoka vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

J1 League: Avispa Fukuoka 3–2 Shimizu S-pulse