Avispa Fukuoka 0–0 Shimizu S-pulse: Result & Stats

Avispa Fukuoka

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shimizu S-pulse

8/23/2025

J1 League · Round 27Best Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka40%

×Draw27%

Shimizu S-pulse33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avispa FukuokaExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.14

Avispa Fukuoka

1.30

Shimizu S-pulse

1.14

Avispa Fukuoka creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 34 away

1.04

creates per match

1.00

1.27

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka

1.04

Shimizu S-pulse

1.00

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka

1.27

Shimizu S-pulse

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw

67%

Avispa Fukuoka or Shimizu S-pulse

73%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

60%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+

18%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals

73%

Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals

37%

Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals

14%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

68%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

32%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)

55%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.04 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.30

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.00 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more

40%

level

27%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

33%

Avispa Fukuoka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

T. Kamijima

Avispa Fukuoka · D

8.2

Match Events

55'

Min Tae Kim

59'

Daiki Matsuoka

60'

K. Kitagawa← K. Matsuzaki

61'

Y. Hashimoto← Y. Iwasaki

61'

S. Zahedi← N. Ben Khalifa

61'

S. Yajima← Y. Shimamoto

61'

T. Inui← Capixaba

76'

Mateus Brunetti

76'

M. Yuzawa← K. Fujimoto

76'

M. Shigemi← T. Miki

82'

Mateus Brunetti

82'

Mateus Brunetti

84'

J. Sumiyoshi← T. Takahashi

85'

Wellington← D. Matsuoka

88'

Y. Yoshida← R. Yamahara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvispaShimizu

Overview

57%Possession43%

14Total Shots5

1.25Expected Goals (xG)0.58

6Corners7

15Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots5

6On Target1

4Off Target4

4Blocked0

8Inside Box4

6Outside Box1

Passing

57%Possession43%

452Total Passes331

390Accurate Passes263

86%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0