Avispa Fukuoka 1–1 Shimizu S-pulse: Result & Stats

Avispa Fukuoka

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shimizu S-pulse

S. Zahedi 85'

K. Kitazume 59'

3/18/2026

J1 League · Round 7Best Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka39%

×Draw28%

Shimizu S-pulse33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avispa FukuokaExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.10

Avispa Fukuoka

1.24

Shimizu S-pulse

1.10

Avispa Fukuoka creates 13% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 33 away

0.96

creates per match

0.97

1.24

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka

0.96

Shimizu S-pulse

0.97

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka

1.24

Shimizu S-pulse

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw

67%

Avispa Fukuoka or Shimizu S-pulse

72%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

61%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+

17%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals

71%

Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals

35%

Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals

13%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

67%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

30%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)

55%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 0.96 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.24

Shimizu S-pulse attack 0.97 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more

39%

level

28%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

33%

Avispa Fukuoka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Matheus Bueno

Shimizu S-pulse · M

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Tatsuki Nara

14'

Kazuki Kozuka

46'

K. Maeda← S. Sato

54'

K. Matsuzaki← K. Kozuka

58'

A. Sani Brown← N. Ben Khalifa

58'

S. Nago← Y. Kitajima

59'

K. Kitazume↳ K. Kitagawa

66'

Hanan Saniburaun

71'

K. Fujimoto← M. Shigemi

73'

S. Takagi← K. Kitazume

80'

S. Zahedi← Y. Maejima

85'

S. Zahedi↳ S. Nago

86'

K. Chiba← K. Kitagawa

87'

T. Takahashi← Oh Se-Hun

87'

R. Ohata← Y. Honda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvispaShimizu

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots7

0.67Expected Goals (xG)0.76

5Corners2

11Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots7

2On Target2

4Off Target2

7Blocked3

5Inside Box6

8Outside Box1

Passing

53%Possession47%

407Total Passes354

301Accurate Passes253

74%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides5