Sheffield Utd 1–2 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Chelsea

A. Rüdiger 55' (OG)

Jorginho 58' (pen)

M. Mount 43'

2/7/2021

Premier League · Round 23Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sheffield Utd30%

×Draw26%

Chelsea44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.43

Sheffield Utd

1.12

Chelsea

1.43

Chelsea creates 28% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 201 away

0.98

creates per match

1.59

1.27

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

0.98

Chelsea

1.59

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.27

Chelsea

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

56%

Sheffield Utd or Chelsea

74%

Draw or Chelsea

70%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

12%

Chelsea wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

67%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

31%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

10%

Chelsea 1+ goals

76%

Chelsea 2+ goals

42%

Chelsea 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

40%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 201 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 0.98 + Chelsea defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.12

Chelsea attack 1.59 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

30%

level

26%

Chelsea scores more

44%

Chelsea at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Kovačić

Chelsea · M

7.7

Match Events

12'

Chris BashamGoal cancelled

17'

Chris Basham

43'

M. Mount↳ T. Werner

55'

A. RüdigerOwn goal

57'

Timo WernerGoal cancelled

58'

JorginhoPenalty

62'

D. McGoldrick← O. Burke

62'

Marcos Alonso← B. Chilwell

62'

C. Hudson-Odoi← O. Giroud

68'

B. Sharp← K. Bryan

75'

N. Kanté← T. Werner

86'

R. Brewster← O. Norwood

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldChelsea

Overview

31%Possession69%

8Total Shots9

1Corners8

8Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots9

3On Target3

3Off Target4

2Blocked2

5Inside Box7

3Outside Box2

Passing

31%Possession69%

338Total Passes756

244Accurate Passes654

72%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2