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Chelsea vs Sheffield Utd — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
T. Werner 80'
Thiago Silva 77'
B. Chilwell 34'
T. Abraham 23'
D. McGoldrick 9'
11/7/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chelsea61%
×Draw23%
Sheffield Utd16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
1.75
Sheffield Utd
0.77

Chelsea creates 127% more chances

Season form · 202 home / 45 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.78
Sheffield Utd
0.58

allows per match

Chelsea
0.97
Sheffield Utd
1.71

finishing

Chelsea+0.00on par
Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
84%
Chelsea or Sheffield Utd
77%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
39%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
35%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
83%
Chelsea 2+ goals
52%
Chelsea 3+ goals
25%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
54%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
18%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
79%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.97 · 202 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.78 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sheffield Utd attack 0.58 + Chelsea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chelsea scores more
61%
level
23%
Sheffield Utd scores more
16%

Chelsea at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
H. ZiyechChelseaChelsea · F
8.9

Match Events

9'
D. McGoldrick↳ S. Berge
23'
T. Abraham↳ M. Kovačić
34'
B. Chilwell↳ H. Ziyech
37'
John Egan
62'
B. Osborn← O. Norwood
63'
O. McBurnie← R. Brewster
71'
Jorginho← M. Kovačić
75'
Sander Berge
77'
Thiago Silva↳ H. Ziyech
80'
T. Werner↳ N. Kanté
87'
O. Giroud← T. Werner

Possession

70%Chelsea

Shots

20Chelsea

Pass accuracy

56%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaSheffield
Overview
70%Possession30%
20Total Shots6
6Corners7
5Fouls14
Shots
20Total Shots6
9On Target3
5Off Target1
6Blocked2
10Inside Box4
10Outside Box2
Passing
70%Possession30%
762Total Passes320
669Accurate Passes223
88%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
5Fouls14
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Sheffield Utd

Chelsea beat Sheffield Utd 4-1 in Premier League on November 7, 2020.

Goals: D. McGoldrick (9'), T. Abraham (23'), B. Chilwell (34'), Thiago Silva (77'), T. Werner (80').

Chelsea controlled possession (70%) and registered 20 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.