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Chelsea vs Sheffield Utd — League #45 2026

Chelsea
Chelseaadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
H. Ziyech 90+2'
O. Norwood 24' (OG)
3/21/2021League #45League #45 · Quarter-finalsStamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chelsea91%
×Draw8%
Sheffield Utd1%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
2.73
Sheffield Utd
0.10

Chelsea creates 2630% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Chelsea
2.80
Sheffield Utd
0.00

allows per match

Chelsea
0.20
Sheffield Utd
2.67

finishing

Chelsea+0.00on par
Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

91%No
  • No91
  • Yes9

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–12%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–022%
2–12%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–020%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–014%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (22%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
99%
Chelsea or Sheffield Utd
92%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
9%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
73%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
93%
Chelsea 2+ goals
75%
Chelsea 3+ goals
50%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
10%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
0%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
99%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
7%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 2.80 + Sheffield Utd defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.73

Sheffield Utd attack 0.00 + Chelsea defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

Chelsea scores more
91%
level
8%
Sheffield Utd scores more
1%

Chelsea at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
B. ChilwellChelseaChelsea · M
8.7

Match Events

24'
O. NorwoodOwn goal
63'
Azpilicueta← A. Christensen
63'
R. James← O. Giroud
72'
H. Ziyech← B. Gilmour
72'
K. Havertz← C. Hudson-Odoi
75'
O. Burke← O. McBurnie
79'
R. Brewster← O. Norwood
83'
N. Kanté← C. Pulisic
90'
L. Mousset← J. Bogle
90+2'
H. Ziyech↳ B. Chilwell

Possession

62%Chelsea

Shots

8Chelsea

Pass accuracy

54%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaSheffield
Overview
62%Possession38%
8Total Shots7
2Corners4
8Fouls14
Shots
8Total Shots7
3On Target4
5Off Target2
0Blocked1
6Inside Box4
2Outside Box3
Passing
62%Possession38%
603Total Passes352
525Accurate Passes262
87%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls14
1Offsides2

League #45: Chelsea 2–0 Sheffield Utd

Chelsea beat Sheffield Utd 2-0 in League #45 on March 21, 2021.

Goals: O. Norwood (24' o.g.), H. Ziyech (90+2').

Chelsea controlled possession (62%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.