Chelsea 2–0 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield Utd

N. Jackson 61'

C. Palmer 54'

12/16/2023

Premier League · Round 17Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Chelsea59%

×Draw22%

Sheffield Utd18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.92

Chelsea

1.86

Sheffield Utd

0.92

Chelsea creates 102% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 9 away

1.89

creates per match

0.59

1.25

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Chelsea

1.89

Sheffield Utd

0.59

allows per match

Chelsea

1.25

Sheffield Utd

1.83

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Chelsea-0.45scores less

Sheffield Utd-0.03on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

82%

Chelsea or Sheffield Utd

78%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

41%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

35%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

84%

Chelsea 2+ goals

55%

Chelsea 3+ goals

28%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

60%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

23%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

76%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.25 · 39 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.83 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.89 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.86

Sheffield Utd attack 0.59 + Chelsea defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Chelsea scores more

59%

level

22%

Sheffield Utd scores more

18%

Chelsea at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

C. Palmer

Chelsea · M

8.3

Match Events

42'

James McAtee

52'

Conor Gallagher

54'

C. Palmer↳ R. Sterling

58'

W. Osula← A. Brooks

61'

N. Jackson↳ C. Palmer

63'

Gustavo Hamer

67'

O. Norwood← O. McBurnie

69'

E. Fernández← M. Mudryk

74'

Max Lowe

75'

A. Broja← R. Sterling

80'

A. Ben Slimane← G. Hamer

90+4'

I. Maatsen← C. Palmer

90+4'

M. Gusto← N. Jackson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaSheffield

Overview

78%Possession22%

15Total Shots6

3.05Expected Goals (xG)0.36

7Corners5

9Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots6

6On Target1

4Off Target1

5Blocked4

7Inside Box3

8Outside Box3

Passing

78%Possession22%

815Total Passes226

740Accurate Passes138

91%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Premier League: Chelsea 2–0 Sheffield Utd

Chelsea beat Sheffield Utd 2-0 in Premier League on December 16, 2023.

Goals: C. Palmer (54'), N. Jackson (61').

Chelsea controlled possession (78%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.

Chelsea vs Sheffield Utd — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Chelsea 2–0 Sheffield Utd