Sfîntul Gheorghe 1–0 CSF Bălți: Result & Stats

Sfîntul Gheorghe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CSF Bălți

C. Pozatzidis 76'

4/26/2023

Cupa · Semi-finalsBaza Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sfîntul Gheorghe55%

×Draw27%

CSF Bălți17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sfîntul GheorgheExpected goals in this matchCSF Bălți

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.67

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.43

CSF Bălți

0.67

Sfîntul Gheorghe creates 113% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

1.14

0.20

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.00

CSF Bălți

1.14

allows per match

Sfîntul Gheorghe

0.20

CSF Bălți

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sfîntul Gheorghe+0.00on par

CSF Bălți+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfîntul Gheorghe ↓

CSF Bălți →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sfîntul Gheorghe or draw

83%

Sfîntul Gheorghe or CSF Bălți

73%

Draw or CSF Bălți

45%

Winning margin

Sfîntul Gheorghe wins by 2+

28%

CSF Bălți wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sfîntul Gheorghe 1+ goals

76%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 2+ goals

42%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 3+ goals

17%

CSF Bălți 1+ goals

49%

CSF Bălți 2+ goals

15%

CSF Bălți 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sfîntul Gheorghe (draw refunded)

76%

CSF Bălți (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfîntul Gheorghe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

CSF Bălți away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfîntul Gheorghe attack 1.00 + CSF Bălți defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

CSF Bălți attack 1.14 + Sfîntul Gheorghe defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sfîntul Gheorghe scores more

55%

level

27%

CSF Bălți scores more

17%

Sfîntul Gheorghe at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sfîntul Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

S. Mișcov← M. Nwautobo

18'

Kau

42'

N. Motpan

75'

N. Bongo Mbourou

75'

Á. Bely← V. Yakovlev

75'

D. Danu← Z. Randriambololona

76'

C. Pozatzidis

86'

V. Paireli← K. Bunga

90+1'

M. Căruntu← C. Calaidjoglu

Sfîntul

CSF

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: N. Mandrîcenco

86'▲V. Paireli←▼K. Bunga

90+1'▲M. Căruntu←▼C. Calaidjoglu

Sfîntul Gheorghe substitutes

PaireliCăruntuSuvorovOjogChelariSvinarencoButucelGuțuEdery

Manager: V. Rusnac

4'▲S. Mișcov←▼M. Nwautobo

75'▲Á. Bely←▼V. Yakovlev

75'▲D. Danu←▼Z. Randriambololona

CSF Bălți substitutes

MișcovBelyDanuNazarciucCamburaNeaguBoico