Sfîntul Gheorghe 1–1 CSF Bălți: Result & Stats

Sfîntul Gheorghe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CSF Bălți

V. Paireli 13'

C. Pozatzidis 89' (OG)

3/17/2023

Super Liga · Championship Round - 2Stadionul Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sfîntul Gheorghe45%

×Draw26%

CSF Bălți29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sfîntul GheorgheExpected goals in this matchCSF Bălți

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.13

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.48

CSF Bălți

1.13

Sfîntul Gheorghe creates 31% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 69 away

1.35

creates per match

1.01

1.24

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.35

CSF Bălți

1.01

allows per match

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.24

CSF Bălți

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sfîntul Gheorghe+0.00on par

CSF Bălți+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfîntul Gheorghe ↓

CSF Bălți →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sfîntul Gheorghe or draw

71%

Sfîntul Gheorghe or CSF Bălți

74%

Draw or CSF Bălți

55%

Winning margin

Sfîntul Gheorghe wins by 2+

22%

CSF Bălți wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sfîntul Gheorghe 1+ goals

77%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 2+ goals

43%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 3+ goals

19%

CSF Bălți 1+ goals

68%

CSF Bălți 2+ goals

31%

CSF Bălți 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sfîntul Gheorghe (draw refunded)

61%

CSF Bălți (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfîntul Gheorghe at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

CSF Bălți away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfîntul Gheorghe attack 1.35 + CSF Bălți defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

CSF Bălți attack 1.01 + Sfîntul Gheorghe defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sfîntul Gheorghe scores more

45%

level

26%

CSF Bălți scores more

29%

Sfîntul Gheorghe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sfîntul Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

V. Paireli

51'

65'

D. Pușcaș← M. Căruntu

73'

P. Neagu← S. Cojocari

77'

P. Ojog← V. Paireli

77'

R. Chelari← D. Lisu

89'

C. PozatzidisOwn goal

90'

S. Mișcov← N. Bongo

Sfîntul

CSF

16

Namaşco

44

Furtună

31

Taira

24

▼

22

10

2

6

▼

7

11

14

22

19

66

3

24

21

⚽

▼

Paireli

99

Calaidjog

8

▼

Lisu

15

Ihekuna

10

▼

Căruntu

9

🥅

Pozatzidi

Manager: N. Mandrîcenco

65'▲D. Pușcaș←▼M. Căruntu

77'▲P. Ojog←▼V. Paireli

77'▲R. Chelari←▼D. Lisu

Sfîntul Gheorghe substitutes

37Pușcaș17Ojog88Chelari7Suvorov16Butucel28Guțu48Bunga

Manager: V. Rusnac

73'▲P. Neagu←▼S. Cojocari

90'▲S. Mișcov←▼N. Bongo

CSF Bălți substitutes

21Neagu17Mișcov3Boico9Yakovlev1Nazarciuc