CSF Bălți 2–1 Sfîntul Gheorghe: Result & Stats

CSF Bălți

AET

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sfîntul Gheorghe

Z. Randriambololona 116' (pen)

A. Rusnac 73' (pen)

N. Moțpan 19'

C. Ngah 58'

5/3/2023

Cupa · Semi-finalsStadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

CSF Bălți34%

×Draw20%

Sfîntul Gheorghe46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSF BălțiExpected goals in this matchSfîntul Gheorghe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

2.20

CSF Bălți

1.88

Sfîntul Gheorghe

2.20

Sfîntul Gheorghe creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

3.50

0.90

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

CSF Bălți

3.00

Sfîntul Gheorghe

3.50

allows per match

CSF Bălți

0.90

Sfîntul Gheorghe

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSF Bălți+0.00on par

Sfîntul Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSF Bălți ↓

Sfîntul Gheorghe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

CSF Bălți or draw

54%

CSF Bălți or Sfîntul Gheorghe

80%

Draw or Sfîntul Gheorghe

66%

Winning margin

CSF Bălți wins by 2+

17%

Sfîntul Gheorghe wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

CSF Bălți 1+ goals

85%

CSF Bălți 2+ goals

56%

CSF Bălți 3+ goals

29%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 1+ goals

89%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 2+ goals

64%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

CSF Bălți (draw refunded)

43%

Sfîntul Gheorghe (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSF Bălți at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Sfîntul Gheorghe away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSF Bălți attack 3.00 + Sfîntul Gheorghe defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Sfîntul Gheorghe attack 3.50 + CSF Bălți defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CSF Bălți scores more

34%

level

20%

Sfîntul Gheorghe scores more

46%

Sfîntul Gheorghe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sfîntul Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

S. Svinarenco← Eduardo Kau

19'

N. Moțpan

25'

44'

51'

54'

58'

C. Ngah

64'

71'

D. Danu← S. Mișcov

72'

S. Svinarenco

73'

V. Paireli← C. Calaidjoglu

73'

A. RusnacPenalty

75'

C. Ngah

83'

A. Suvorov← M. Ihekuna

83'

M. Căruntu← C. Pozatzidis

83'

R. Chelari← K. Bunga

85'

116'

Z. RandriambololonaPenalty

117'

118'

CSF

Sfîntul

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: V. Rusnac

71'▲D. Danu←▼S. Mișcov

CSF Bălți substitutes

DanuNazarciucCamburaBoicoYakovlev

Manager: N. Mandrîcenco

15'▲S. Svinarenco←▼Eduardo Kau

73'▲V. Paireli←▼C. Calaidjoglu

83'▲A. Suvorov←▼M. Ihekuna

83'▲M. Căruntu←▼C. Pozatzidis

83'▲R. Chelari←▼K. Bunga

Sfîntul Gheorghe substitutes

SvinarencoPaireliSuvorovCăruntuChelariȘtefanButucelGuțuEdery

Cupa: CSF Bălți 2–1 Sfîntul Gheorghe

CSF Bălți beat Sfîntul Gheorghe 2-1 in Cupa on May 3, 2023.

Goals: N. Moțpan (19'), C. Ngah (58'), A. Rusnac (73' pen), Z. Randriambololona (116' pen).

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Bălţi.

CSF Bălți vs Sfîntul Gheorghe — Cupa 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Cupa: CSF Bălți 2–1 Sfîntul Gheorghe