Servette FC 1–0 Yverdon Sport: Result & Stats

Servette FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Yverdon Sport

1/27/2024

Super League · Round 20Stade de Genève

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Servette FC39%

×Draw26%

Yverdon Sport36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Servette FCExpected goals in this matchYverdon Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.33

Servette FC

1.40

Yverdon Sport

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

1.19

creates per match

1.23

1.43

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Servette FC

1.19

Yverdon Sport

1.23

allows per match

Servette FC

1.43

Yverdon Sport

1.60

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Servette FC+0.31scores more

Yverdon Sport-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette FC ↓

Yverdon Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Servette FC or draw

64%

Servette FC or Yverdon Sport

74%

Draw or Yverdon Sport

61%

Winning margin

Servette FC wins by 2+

18%

Yverdon Sport wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Servette FC 1+ goals

75%

Servette FC 2+ goals

41%

Servette FC 3+ goals

17%

Yverdon Sport 1+ goals

74%

Yverdon Sport 2+ goals

38%

Yverdon Sport 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Servette FC (draw refunded)

52%

Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette FC at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.43 · 12 matches

Yverdon Sport away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.60 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette FC attack 1.19 + Yverdon Sport defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Yverdon Sport attack 1.23 + Servette FC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Servette FC scores more

39%

level

26%

Yverdon Sport scores more

36%

Servette FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Servette FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff