Servette FC 0–2 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Servette FC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Slavia Praha

I. Ogbu 58'

L. Masopust 32'

9/21/2023

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 1Stade de Genève

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Servette FC31%

×Draw25%

Slavia Praha44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Servette FCExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.54

Servette FC

1.25

Slavia Praha

1.54

Slavia Praha creates 23% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

1.57

1.50

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Servette FC

1.00

Slavia Praha

1.57

allows per match

Servette FC

1.50

Slavia Praha

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Servette FC+0.00on par

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette FC ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Servette FC or draw

56%

Servette FC or Slavia Praha

75%

Draw or Slavia Praha

69%

Winning margin

Servette FC wins by 2+

13%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Servette FC 1+ goals

71%

Servette FC 2+ goals

36%

Servette FC 3+ goals

13%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

79%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

45%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Servette FC (draw refunded)

41%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette FC attack 1.00 + Slavia Praha defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Slavia Praha attack 1.57 + Servette FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Servette FC scores more

31%

level

25%

Slavia Praha scores more

44%

Slavia Praha at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

I. Ogbu

Slavia Praha · D

8.0

Match Events

27'

Yoan Severin

32'

L. Masopust

36'

Steve Rouiller

52'

C. Zafeiris← P. Ševčík

52'

M. Tijani← M. van Buren

58'

I. Ogbu↳ C. Zafeiris

64'

Chris Bedia

66'

Oscar Dorley

67'

E. Crivelli← C. Bedia

67'

J. Guillemenot← D. Kutesa

67'

G. Ondoua← D. Douline

72'

L. Provod← D. Douděra

72'

M. Jurásek← M. Tomič

79'

Muhamed Tijani

81'

H. Touati← A. Antunes

84'

R. Rodelin← B. Mazikou

87'

V. Jurečka← A. Dumitrescu

90+3'

Aleš Mandous

90+1'

Lukáš Provod

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ServetteSlavia

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots10

0.42Expected Goals (xG)1.24

4Corners8

13Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots10

3On Target2

4Off Target4

4Blocked4

3Inside Box5

8Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

343Total Passes378

239Accurate Passes257

70%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls14

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2

UEFA Europa League: Servette FC 0–2 Slavia Praha

Slavia Praha beat Servette FC 2-0 in UEFA Europa League on September 21, 2023.

Goals: L. Masopust (32'), I. Ogbu (58').

Slavia Praha controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade de Genève in Lancy.

Servette FC vs Slavia Praha — UEFA Europa League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UEFA Europa League: Servette FC 0–2 Slavia Praha