Sassuolo 0–0 Udinese: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sassuolo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Udinese

12/2/2018

Serie A · Round 14Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Sassuolo39%

×Draw27%

Udinese35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SassuoloExpected goals in this matchUdinese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.23

Sassuolo

1.31

Udinese

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 32 away

1.05

creates per match

1.05

1.41

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Sassuolo

1.05

Udinese

1.05

allows per match

Sassuolo

1.41

Udinese

1.57

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Sassuolo+0.17scores more

Udinese+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Udinese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw

65%

Sassuolo or Udinese

73%

Draw or Udinese

61%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+

17%

Udinese wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals

73%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

38%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

14%

Udinese 1+ goals

71%

Udinese 2+ goals

35%

Udinese 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

53%

Udinese (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.57 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.05 + Udinese defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Udinese attack 1.05 + Sassuolo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sassuolo scores more

39%

level

27%

Udinese scores more

35%

Sassuolo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Musso

Udinese · G

8.3

Match Events

4'

Gianmarco Ferrari

33'

Rodrigo De Paul

51'

Giuseppe Pezzella

53'

K. Lasagna← V. Behrami

66'

F. Đuričić← F. Di Francesco

66'

A. Matri← K. Babacar

74'

D. Machís← I. Pussetto

79'

Pol Lirola

85'

M. Trotta← S. Sensi

87'

Alessandro Matri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SassuoloUdinese

Overview

65%Possession35%

18Total Shots3

13Corners2

14Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots3

3On Target1

7Off Target2

8Blocked0

10Inside Box1

8Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

589Total Passes315

520Accurate Passes238

88%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2