Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–2 Viking: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Viking

V. Halvorsen 21'

G. Stensness 70'

L. Salvesen 43'

10/27/2024

Eliteserien · Round 26Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF32%

×Draw24%

Viking44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.61

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.35

Viking

1.61

Viking creates 19% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 32 away

1.63

creates per match

1.76

1.46

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.63

Viking

1.76

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.46

Viking

1.07

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.13scores less

Viking+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

56%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or Viking

76%

Draw or Viking

68%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

14%

Viking wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

74%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

39%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

15%

Viking 1+ goals

80%

Viking 2+ goals

48%

Viking 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

42%

Viking (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.46 · 38 matches

Viking away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.07 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.63 + Viking defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.35

Viking attack 1.76 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

32%

level

24%

Viking scores more

44%

Viking at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

G. Stensness

Viking · D

7.9

Match Events

21'

V. Halvorsen↳ S. Ørjasæter

27'

Stefan Johansen

34'

Henrik Heggheim

43'

L. Salvesen↳ V. Vevatne

54'

Jo Inge Berget

58'

H. Tangen← S. Johansen

58'

A. Sanyang← J. Inge Berget

64'

K. Løkberg← S. Kvia-Egeskog

64'

N. D'Agostino← L. Salvesen

70'

G. Stensness↳ Z. Tripić

72'

N. Sandberg← F. Carstensen

78'

H. Haugen← H. Heggheim

78'

Y. de Lanlay← S. Svendsen

82'

D. Job← S. Christiansen

82'

S. Guðjohnsen← V. Halvorsen

87'

Sveinn Aron Guðjohnsen

90+6'

Christian CappisGoal cancelled

90+2'

C. Cappis← P. Christiansen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarpsborgViking

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots16

1.46Expected Goals (xG)1.01

0Corners8

14Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots16

3On Target5

6Off Target7

2Blocked4

6Inside Box12

5Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

471Total Passes404

382Accurate Passes316

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3