Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fredrikstad

V. E. Halvorsen 90', 41'

F. Holme 17'

5/9/2026

Eliteserien · Round 8Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF44%

×Draw25%

Fredrikstad32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.32

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.59

Fredrikstad

1.32

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 20% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

1.57

creates per match

1.13

1.51

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.57

Fredrikstad

1.13

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.51

Fredrikstad

1.61

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.13scores less

Fredrikstad-0.04on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

68%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or Fredrikstad

75%

Draw or Fredrikstad

56%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

22%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

80%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

47%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

21%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

73%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

38%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

58%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.51 · 32 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.57 + Fredrikstad defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.59

Fredrikstad attack 1.13 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

44%

level

25%

Fredrikstad scores more

32%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

V. E. Halvorsen

Sarpsborg 08 FF · M

8.3

Match Events

16'

V. E. Halvorsen← J. Berget

17'

20'

30'

36'

41'

45+4'

45+5'

45+4'

65'

65'

M. Odegaard← C. Niyukuri

66'

H. Skogvold← S. Leach

79'

F. Ghebreyohannes← S. Rafn

79'

S. Laghzaoui← O. Ohlenschlaeger

82'

Fredrik Holmé

86'

N. Williams← A. Nibe

86'

B. Gueye← D. Karlsbakk

90+12'

Victor Emanuel HalvorsenGoal confirmed

90'

V. E. Halvorsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarpsborgFredrikstad

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots6

2.11Expected Goals (xG)0.77

11Corners3

15Fouls20

Shots

12Total Shots6

3On Target2

4Off Target1

5Blocked3

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box1

Passing

60%Possession40%

453Total Passes315

355Accurate Passes224

78%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

0.14Goals Prevented0.14

Discipline

15Fouls20

4Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3

Eliteserien: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 Fredrikstad

Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Fredrikstad 2-1 in Eliteserien on May 9, 2026.

Goals: F. Holme (17'), V. E. Halvorsen (41', 90').

Sarpsborg 08 FF controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Sarpsborg Stadion in Sarpsborg.

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 Fredrikstad