Fredrikstad 2–2 Sarpsborg 08 FF: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sarpsborg 08 FF

H. Johansen 90+2'

S. Kvile 50'

F. Tebo Uchenna 74'

J. Inge Berget 6'

4/13/2024

Eliteserien · Round 3Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Fredrikstad41%

×Draw23%

Sarpsborg 08 FF36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.55

Fredrikstad

1.66

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 31 away

1.60

creates per match

1.77

1.33

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Fredrikstad

1.60

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.77

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.33

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.71

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

64%

Fredrikstad or Sarpsborg 08 FF

77%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF

59%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

21%

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

81%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

49%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

23%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

79%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

46%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

53%

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.77 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

41%

level

23%

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

36%

Fredrikstad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

H. Johansen

Fredrikstad · F

8.5

Match Events

-5'

Mads Nielsen

6'

J. Inge Berget↳ N. Sandberg

45+1'

A. Sher← J. Inge Berget

50'

S. Kvile↳ M. Traoré

65'

E. Wichne← P. Reinhardsen

65'

R. Zekhnini← N. Sandberg

71'

S. Johansen← H. Meister

72'

Sigurd Kvile

74'

F. Tebo Uchenna↳ S. Johansen

78'

Jeppe Andersen

80'

L. Begby← M. Bjørlo

80'

H. Johansen← O. Aga

80'

B. Hendriksson← S. Molde

88'

S. Rafn← P. Metcalfe

88'

J. Kjær← P. Aukland

90+1'

Rafik Zekhnini

90+2'

H. Johansen↳ S. Sørløkk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FredrikstadSarpsborg

Overview

54%Possession46%

18Total Shots5

3.82Expected Goals (xG)1.20

6Corners3

10Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots5

6On Target5

6Off Target0

6Blocked0

16Inside Box3

2Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

421Total Passes368

308Accurate Passes259

73%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0