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Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — Eliteserien 2026

Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
S. Sorlokk 79'
D. Karlsbakk 90'
6/1/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 9Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Fredrikstad40%
×Draw23%
Sarpsborg 08 FF37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad
1.63
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 30 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad
1.60
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.81

allows per match

Fredrikstad
1.33
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.66

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less
Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.14scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw
63%
Fredrikstad or Sarpsborg 08 FF
77%
Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF
60%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+
20%
Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals
80%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
48%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
22%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals
79%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals
46%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
52%
Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.66 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.81 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fredrikstad scores more
40%
level
23%
Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more
37%

Fredrikstad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
M. WoledziFredrikstadFredrikstad · D
8.2

Match Events

21'
Rocco Robert Shein
45'
Oskar Öhlenschlaeger
56'
P. Reinhardsen← J. Berget
68'
S. Sorlokk← H. Skogvold
72'
Menno Koch
72'
Menno KochGoal cancelled
73'
V. E. Halvorsen← M. Jeahze
78'
P. Metcalfe← R. R. Shein
79'
S. Sorlokk
86'
S. Rafn← D. Eid
86'
B. Faraas← O. Ohlenschlaeger
88'
N. Skuseth← A. Sanyang
88'
S. Gudjohnsen← H. Tangen
88'
M. Haheim-Elveseter← S. Christiansen
90+15'
Leonard Owusu
90+11'
Daniel Karlsbakk
90'
D. Karlsbakk↳ M. Koch

Possession

50%Fredrikstad

Shots

14Fredrikstad

Pass accuracy

51%Fredrikstad

Statistics

FredrikstadSarpsborg
Overview
50%Possession50%
14Total Shots19
2.18Expected Goals (xG)2.47
6Corners9
12Fouls6
Shots
14Total Shots19
7On Target8
4Off Target4
3Blocked7
9Inside Box16
5Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
406Total Passes411
318Accurate Passes303
78%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
6Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls6
3Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on June 1, 2025.

Goals: S. Sorlokk (79'), D. Karlsbakk (90').

Fredrikstad controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 19.

The match was played at Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.