Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–1 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fredrikstad

H. Skogvold 48'

9/28/2024

Eliteserien · Round 24Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF44%

×Draw25%

Fredrikstad32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.32

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.59

Fredrikstad

1.32

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 20% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

1.57

creates per match

1.13

1.51

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.57

Fredrikstad

1.13

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.51

Fredrikstad

1.61

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.13scores less

Fredrikstad-0.04on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

68%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or Fredrikstad

75%

Draw or Fredrikstad

56%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

22%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

80%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

47%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

21%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

73%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

38%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

58%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.51 · 32 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.57 + Fredrikstad defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.59

Fredrikstad attack 1.13 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

44%

level

25%

Fredrikstad scores more

32%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Bjørlo

Fredrikstad · M

7.3

Match Events

43'

Peter Reinhardsen

48'

H. Skogvold↳ M. Bjørlo

54'

Sondre Ørjasæter

68'

F. Carstensen← D. Job

68'

S. Christiansen← P. Reinhardsen

78'

A. Sanyang← S. Guðjohnsen

79'

A. Diop← V. Halvorsen

79'

D. Eid← S. Molde

79'

J. Kjær← H. Skogvold

80'

Daniel Eid

83'

Simen Rafn

84'

J. Bjartalíð← S. Sørløkk

85'

N. Sandberg← E. Wichne

87'

S. Tijani← M. Bjørlo

90+6'

Menno Koch

90'

Jo Inge BergetPenalty cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarpsborgFredrikstad

Overview

70%Possession30%

13Total Shots6

0.70Expected Goals (xG)1.31

1Corners2

16Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots6

2On Target2

9Off Target3

2Blocked1

8Inside Box4

5Outside Box2

Passing

70%Possession30%

511Total Passes221

393Accurate Passes97

77%Pass Accuracy44%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides5