Sarmiento Junin 0–0 Huracan: Result & Stats

Sarmiento Junin

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Huracan

5/21/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 17Estadio Eva Perón de Junín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Sarmiento Junin36%

×Draw32%

Huracan32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarmiento JuninExpected goals in this matchHuracan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.90

Sarmiento Junin

0.97

Huracan

0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

0.94

creates per match

0.84

0.96

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Sarmiento Junin

0.94

Huracan

0.84

allows per match

Sarmiento Junin

0.96

Huracan

1.01

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Sarmiento Junin-0.06on par

Huracan+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Junin ↓

Huracan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Sarmiento Junin or draw

68%

Sarmiento Junin or Huracan

68%

Draw or Huracan

64%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

13%

Huracan wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

62%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

25%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

7%

Huracan 1+ goals

59%

Huracan 2+ goals

23%

Huracan 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

53%

Huracan (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Junin at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.96 · 16 matches

Huracan away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.01 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.94 + Huracan defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Huracan attack 0.84 + Sarmiento Junin defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sarmiento Junin scores more

36%

level

32%

Huracan scores more

32%

Sarmiento Junin at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sarmiento Junin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

L. Chaves

Huracan · G

8.5

Match Events

29'

Walter Mazzantti

40'

Gonzalo Bettini

51'

Harrinson MancillaCard upgrade

53'

54'

56'

60'

61'

L. Castro← F. Fattori

62'

J. García← J. Acevedo

68'

S. Quiroga← F. Martínez

68'

L. Melano← J. Toledo

75'

V. Burgoa← W. Mazzantti

75'

76'

90+3'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarmientoHuracan

Overview

27%Possession73%

13Total Shots20

5Corners2

11Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots20

6On Target5

5Off Target11

2Blocked4

8Inside Box11

5Outside Box9

Passing

27%Possession73%

188Total Passes539

111Accurate Passes466

59%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

6Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

4Offsides1