Huracan 3–1 Sarmiento Junin: Result & Stats

Huracan

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sarmiento Junin

Lucas Acosta 90+1' (OG)

H. De La Fuente 77'

F. Tobio 16'

I. Morales 30'

10/5/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 17Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Huracan48%

×Draw32%

Sarmiento Junin20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuracanExpected goals in this matchSarmiento Junin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.60

Huracan

1.11

Sarmiento Junin

0.60

Huracan creates 85% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

0.97

creates per match

0.55

0.66

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Huracan

0.97

Sarmiento Junin

0.55

allows per match

Huracan

0.66

Sarmiento Junin

1.25

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

Huracan-0.21scores less

Sarmiento Junin+0.27scores more

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Sarmiento Junin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Huracan or draw

80%

Huracan or Sarmiento Junin

68%

Draw or Sarmiento Junin

52%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+

20%

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals

67%

Huracan 2+ goals

30%

Huracan 3+ goals

10%

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

45%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

12%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)

71%

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.66 · 17 matches

Sarmiento Junin away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.25 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 0.97 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.55 + Huracan defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Huracan scores more

48%

level

32%

Sarmiento Junin scores more

20%

Huracan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

H. De La Fuente

Huracan · D

7.5

Match Events

16'

F. Tobio

30'

I. Morales↳ J. Gho

46'

G. Burdisso← F. Tobio

51'

Facundo Roncaglia

52'

M. Rosales← F. Roncaglia

58'

R. Ábila← W. Mazzantti

66'

Rodrigo Echeverría

73'

V. Burgoa← N. Gaitán

73'

L. López← I. Morales

77'

H. De La Fuente↳ W. Alarcón

78'

P. Siles← H. De La Fuente

79'

Matias Rosales

79'

H. Fértoli← A. Soñora

83'

G. Hauche← Manuel García

83'

E. Naya← E. López

90+4'

Eric Ramírez

90+1'

C. Ibáñez← G. Benítez

90+1'

Lucas AcostaOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuracanSarmiento

Overview

76%Possession24%

18Total Shots4

0.95Expected Goals (xG)0.10

9Corners3

8Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots4

6On Target1

8Off Target2

4Blocked1

12Inside Box2

6Outside Box2

Passing

76%Possession24%

617Total Passes191

530Accurate Passes106

86%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

-1.39Goals Prevented-1.39

Discipline

8Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1