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Huracan vs Sarmiento Junin — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Huracan
Huracan
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin
F. Cristaldo 60', 5'
B. Garré 54'
S. Meza 38' (OG)
J. Torres 27' (pen)
8/12/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 13Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Huracan48%
×Draw32%
Sarmiento Junin20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracan
1.11
Sarmiento Junin
0.60

Huracan creates 85% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

creates per match

Huracan
0.97
Sarmiento Junin
0.55

allows per match

Huracan
0.66
Sarmiento Junin
1.25

finishing

Huracan-0.21scores less
Sarmiento Junin+0.27scores more

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Sarmiento Junin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Huracan or draw
80%
Huracan or Sarmiento Junin
68%
Draw or Sarmiento Junin
52%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+
20%
Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals
67%
Huracan 2+ goals
30%
Huracan 3+ goals
10%
Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals
45%
Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals
12%
Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)
71%
Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.66 · 17 matches

Sarmiento Junin away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.25 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 0.97 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.55 + Huracan defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Huracan scores more
48%
level
32%
Sarmiento Junin scores more
20%

Huracan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
F. CristaldoHuracanHuracan · M
8.2

Match Events

5'
F. Cristaldo↳ G. Soto
27'
J. TorresPenalty
32'
L. Carrizo← G. Benítez
38'
S. MezaOwn goal
45'
Fernando Martinez
46'
Lucas Castro
46'
L. Gondou← F. Martínez
50'
Lucas Merolla
50'
Federico Rasmussen
54'
B. Garré
60'
F. Cristaldo↳ R. Cabral
63'
J. Rosso← G. Bettini
63'
F. Quinteros← L. Castro
64'
S. Quiroga← F. Rasmussen
67'
Y. Garnier← E. Méndez
68'
Guido Mainero
82'
V. Sanchez← R. Cabral
86'
Luis Garnier
87'
E. Luna← F. Cristaldo
87'
F. Godoy← S. Hezze
87'
J. Gauto← B. Garré

Possession

69%Huracan

Shots

13Huracan

Pass accuracy

59%Huracan

Statistics

HuracanSarmiento
Overview
69%Possession31%
13Total Shots4
4Corners1
13Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots4
5On Target1
5Off Target1
3Blocked2
7Inside Box3
6Outside Box1
Passing
69%Possession31%
502Total Passes229
423Accurate Passes132
84%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls13
1Yellow Cards5
1Offsides0

Liga Profesional Argentina: Huracan 4–1 Sarmiento Junin

Huracan beat Sarmiento Junin 4-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 12, 2022.

Goals: F. Cristaldo (5', 60'), J. Torres (27' pen), S. Meza (38' o.g.), B. Garré (54').

Huracan controlled possession (69%) and registered 13 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.