Sao Paulo 0–1 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

Sao Paulo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

LDU de Quito

9/25/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Quarter-finalsEstadio Do MorumBIS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sao Paulo58%

×Draw25%

LDU de Quito17%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao PauloExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.74

Sao Paulo

1.61

LDU de Quito

0.74

Sao Paulo creates 118% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

1.65

creates per match

0.83

0.65

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Sao Paulo

1.65

LDU de Quito

0.83

allows per match

Sao Paulo

0.65

LDU de Quito

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Paulo+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sao Paulo or draw

83%

Sao Paulo or LDU de Quito

75%

Draw or LDU de Quito

42%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

32%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

80%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

48%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

22%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

52%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

17%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

77%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo attack 1.65 + LDU de Quito defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

LDU de Quito attack 0.83 + Sao Paulo defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sao Paulo scores more

58%

level

25%

LDU de Quito scores more

17%

Sao Paulo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff