Sao Paulo 1–0 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao PauloExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.86

Sao Paulo

1.83

LDU de Quito

0.86

Sao Paulo creates 113% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

2.21

creates per match

1.23

0.50

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Sao Paulo

2.21

LDU de Quito

1.23

allows per match

Sao Paulo

0.50

LDU de Quito

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Paulo+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sao Paulo or draw

83%

Sao Paulo or LDU de Quito

77%

Draw or LDU de Quito

40%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

35%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

84%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

54%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

28%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

58%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

21%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

78%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo attack 2.21 + LDU de Quito defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.83

LDU de Quito attack 1.23 + Sao Paulo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sao Paulo scores more

60%

level

23%

LDU de Quito scores more

17%

Sao Paulo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

A. Domínguez

LDU de Quito · G

7.9

Match Events

24'

Leonel Quiñónez

48'

Alexander Alvarado

58'

Wellington Rato← Pablo Maia

64'

J. Valverde← R. Mina

67'

J. Rodríguez← Welington

67'

M. Araújo← Rodrigo Nestor

77'

R. Arboleda↳ J. Rodríguez

81'

84'

90'

90+1'

90+7'

L. Alzugaray← J. Valverde

92'

Paolo Guerrero

120+1'

J. CalleriPenalty

120+2'

P. GuerreroPenalty

120+3'

J. RodríguezMissed penalty

120+4'

L. AlzugarayPenalty

120+5'

Lucas MouraPenalty

120+6'

M. MartínezPenalty

120+7'

BeraldoPenalty

120+8'

L. QuiñónezPenalty

120+9'

Wellington RatoPenalty

120+10'

J. JulioPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaoLDU

Overview

70%Possession30%

22Total Shots9

6Corners2

15Fouls13

Shots

22Total Shots9

8On Target2

9Off Target5

5Blocked2

15Inside Box4

7Outside Box5

Passing

70%Possession30%

568Total Passes255

511Accurate Passes191

90%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1