LDU de Quito 2–1 Sao Paulo: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sao Paulo

R. Ibarra 25'

J. Julio 2'

Lucas Moura 80'

8/24/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Quarter-finalsEstadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

LDU de Quito50%

×Draw26%

Sao Paulo24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchSao Paulo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.97

LDU de Quito

1.53

Sao Paulo

0.97

LDU de Quito creates 58% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

2.07

creates per match

1.36

0.57

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

LDU de Quito

2.07

Sao Paulo

1.36

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.57

Sao Paulo

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Sao Paulo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Sao Paulo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

76%

LDU de Quito or Sao Paulo

74%

Draw or Sao Paulo

50%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

26%

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

78%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

45%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

20%

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

62%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

25%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

68%

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Sao Paulo away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.07 + Sao Paulo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sao Paulo attack 1.36 + LDU de Quito defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

50%

level

26%

Sao Paulo scores more

24%

LDU de Quito at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

J. Julio

LDU de Quito · M

8.9

Match Events

2'

12'

25'

45+1'

45+4'

46'

Luan← G. Neves

60'

L. Alzugaray← R. Ibarra

63'

M. Araújo← Rodrigo Nestor

63'

Luciano← Wellington Rato

77'

A. Alvarado← M. Martínez

77'

J. Angulo← P. Guerrero

77'

J. Rodríguez← Alisson

80'

Lucas Moura↳ Luciano

85'

Sebastián González

87'

Luan

88'

J. Valverde← L. Piovi

88'

Ó. Zambrano← S. González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LDUSao

Overview

46%Possession54%

19Total Shots5

8Corners4

11Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots5

7On Target3

6Off Target2

6Blocked0

11Inside Box3

8Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

366Total Passes450

311Accurate Passes398

85%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: LDU de Quito 2–1 Sao Paulo

LDU de Quito beat Sao Paulo 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on August 24, 2023.

Goals: J. Julio (2'), R. Ibarra (25'), Lucas Moura (80').

Sao Paulo controlled possession (54%) and registered 5 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.

LDU de Quito vs Sao Paulo — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: LDU de Quito 2–1 Sao Paulo