LDU de Quito 4–2 Sao Paulo: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Sao Paulo

B. Arce 76'

J. Julio 45+1', 36'

C. Martínez 21'

S. Tréllez 82'

Brenner 60'

9/23/2020

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

LDU de Quito54%

×Draw24%

Sao Paulo21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchSao Paulo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.95

LDU de Quito

1.67

Sao Paulo

0.95

LDU de Quito creates 76% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 19 away

2.29

creates per match

1.16

0.75

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

LDU de Quito

2.29

Sao Paulo

1.16

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.75

Sao Paulo

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Sao Paulo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Sao Paulo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

79%

LDU de Quito or Sao Paulo

76%

Draw or Sao Paulo

46%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

29%

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

81%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

50%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

23%

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

61%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

25%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

72%

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Sao Paulo away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.29 + Sao Paulo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sao Paulo attack 1.16 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

54%

level

24%

Sao Paulo scores more

21%

LDU de Quito at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

J. Julio

LDU de Quito · F

9.3

Match Events

21'

33'

36'

37'

45+1'

46'

46'

Paulinho Boia← Igor Vinicius

53'

B. Arce← M. Zunino

60'

Brenner↳ Paulinho Boia

62'

J. Quinteros← A. Muñoz

62'

L. Ayala← C. Cruz

72'

S. Tréllez← Pablo

72'

Helinho← Hernanes

72'

Rodrigo Nestor← Tchê Tchê

76'

B. Arce↳ J. Julio

79'

J. Alcivar← L. Piovi

80'

R. Medina← C. Martínez

82'

S. Tréllez↳ Brenner

89'

Rodrigo Nestor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LDUSao

Overview

48%Possession52%

16Total Shots15

5Corners4

8Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots15

7On Target4

4Off Target6

5Blocked5

9Inside Box4

7Outside Box11

Passing

48%Possession52%

451Total Passes489

377Accurate Passes407

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3