Sao Paulo 2–1 Atletico Goianiense: Result & Stats

Sao Paulo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Goianiense

Luan 90+5'

J. Calleri 22'

Gabriel Baralhas 72'

10/27/2022

Serie A · Round 34Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Sao Paulo55%

×Draw25%

Atletico Goianiense21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao PauloExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.89

Sao Paulo

1.63

Atletico Goianiense

0.89

Sao Paulo creates 83% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 11 away

1.42

creates per match

0.83

0.95

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Sao Paulo

1.42

Atletico Goianiense

0.83

allows per match

Sao Paulo

0.95

Atletico Goianiense

1.84

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Sao Paulo+0.07on par

Atletico Goianiense-0.38scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sao Paulo or draw

79%

Sao Paulo or Atletico Goianiense

75%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

45%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

29%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

80%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

48%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

22%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

59%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

22%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

73%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.95 · 45 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo attack 1.42 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.63

Atletico Goianiense attack 0.83 + Sao Paulo defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sao Paulo scores more

55%

level

25%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

21%

Sao Paulo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Felipe Alves

Sao Paulo · G

8.2

Match Events

22'

23'

37'

57'

57'

64'

64'

Talles Costa← Rodrigo Nestor

64'

G. Galoppo← A. Colorado

67'

Marlon Freitas← Willian Maranhão

72'

Gabriel Baralhas

79'

Welington← Reinaldo

79'

Luan← João Moreira

79'

Eder← Luciano

82'

Edson Fernando

86'

Jorginho← Luiz Fernando

90+6'

Luan

90'

Léo Pereira

90+5'

Luan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaoAtletico

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots19

4Corners7

10Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots19

2On Target8

6Off Target9

5Blocked2

6Inside Box9

7Outside Box10

Passing

54%Possession46%

461Total Passes390

391Accurate Passes333

85%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

7Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0