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Atletico Goianiense vs Sao Paulo — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Atletico Goianiense
Atletico Goianienseadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
Léo Pereira 78'
Shaylon 56'
Jorginho 11'
Luciano 23'
9/2/2022CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Semi-finalsEstádio do Governo do Estado de Goiás

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Atletico Goianiense49%
×Draw28%
Sao Paulo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Goianiense
1.38
Sao Paulo
0.87

Atletico Goianiense creates 59% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense
1.75
Sao Paulo
1.36

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense
0.38
Sao Paulo
1.00

finishing

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par
Sao Paulo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Sao Paulo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw
76%
Atletico Goianiense or Sao Paulo
72%
Draw or Sao Paulo
51%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+
24%
Sao Paulo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals
75%
Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals
40%
Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals
16%
Sao Paulo 1+ goals
58%
Sao Paulo 2+ goals
22%
Sao Paulo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)
67%
Sao Paulo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Sao Paulo away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.75 + Sao Paulo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sao Paulo attack 1.36 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more
49%
level
28%
Sao Paulo scores more
24%

Atletico Goianiense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
JorginhoAtletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense · M
7.5

Match Events

11'
Jorginho↳ Dudu
23'
Luciano↳ Rodrigo Nestor
28'
Wanderson
32'
Igor Gomes
40'
Igor Gomes
40'
Igor Gomes
45+2'
Dudu
45'
Patryck← N. Ferraresi
45'
Welington← Reinaldo
46'
Hayner← Dudu
46'
Shaylon← Gabriel Baralhas
52'
Edson Fernando
56'
Shaylon
60'
Marcos Guilherme← Luciano
60'
G. Neves← Pablo Maia
66'
Arthur← Jefferson
70'
Gabriel Neves
72'
Léo Pereira← Wellington Rato
78'
Léo Pereira↳ Arthur
79'
Alisson← Rodrigo Nestor
80'
Shaylon
84'
Igor Vinícius
85'
Rhaldney← Edson Fernando

Possession

54%Atletico

Shots

7Atletico

Pass accuracy

51%Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoSao
Overview
54%Possession46%
7Total Shots4
0Corners5
9Fouls17
Shots
7Total Shots4
3On Target1
3Off Target1
1Blocked2
3Inside Box1
4Outside Box3
Passing
54%Possession46%
507Total Passes418
443Accurate Passes351
87%Pass Accuracy84%
Discipline
9Fouls17
4Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs Sao Paulo

Atletico Goianiense beat Sao Paulo 3-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on September 2, 2022.

Goals: Jorginho (11'), Luciano (23'), Shaylon (56'), Léo Pereira (78').

Atletico Goianiense controlled possession (54%) and registered 7 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estádio do Governo do Estado de Goiás in Goiânia, Goiás.