Atletico Goianiense 0–3 Sao Paulo: Result & Stats

Atletico Goianiense

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sao Paulo

Ferreira 76'

Luciano 52' (pen)

J. Calleri 14'

4/21/2024

Serie A · Round 3Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Atletico Goianiense42%

×Draw29%

Sao Paulo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchSao Paulo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.99

Atletico Goianiense

1.25

Sao Paulo

0.99

Atletico Goianiense creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 42 away

1.21

creates per match

0.86

1.13

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.21

Sao Paulo

0.86

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.13

Sao Paulo

1.29

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.21scores less

Sao Paulo+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Sao Paulo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

71%

Atletico Goianiense or Sao Paulo

71%

Draw or Sao Paulo

58%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

19%

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

71%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

36%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

13%

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

63%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

26%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

59%

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.13 · 12 matches

Sao Paulo away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.21 + Sao Paulo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sao Paulo attack 0.86 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

42%

level

29%

Sao Paulo scores more

29%

Atletico Goianiense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Luciano

Sao Paulo · F

8.2

Match Events

14'

J. Calleri↳ André Silva

33'

Gabriel Baralhas

39'

Roni

46'

Rhaldney← Roni

46'

Gabriel Barros← A. Cruz

47'

Gabriel Barros

50'

LucianoPenalty confirmed

51'

Luiz Felipe

52'

LucianoPenalty

54'

Lucas Kal← Gabriel Baralhas

54'

63'

63'

72'

72'

Rodrigo Nestor← A. Franco

76'

Ferreira↳ Rodrigo Nestor

81'

M. Araújo← Pablo Maia

82'

D. Bobadilla← Alisson

84'

Luiz Fernando

88'

G. Galoppo← Luciano

89'

Maguinho← Luiz Fernando

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoSao

Overview

35%Possession65%

9Total Shots19

0.24Expected Goals (xG)1.66

4Corners3

13Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots19

1On Target7

4Off Target4

4Blocked8

2Inside Box12

7Outside Box7

Passing

35%Possession65%

321Total Passes632

253Accurate Passes561

79%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

0.65Goals Prevented0.65

Discipline

13Fouls9

5Yellow Cards0

2Red Cards0

0Offsides2