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Sao Paulo vs Atletico Goianiense — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Sao Paulo
Sao Pauloadvanced
Pens
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Goianiense
Atletico Goianiense
G. Galoppo 120+9' (pen)
Igor Vinicius 120+7' (pen)
J. Calleri 120+3' (pen)
Reinaldo 120+1' (pen)
Patrick 63', 4'
Shaylon 120+6' (pen)
Wellington Rato 120+2' (pen)
9/9/2022CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Semi-finalsEstádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sao Paulo56%
×Draw26%
Atletico Goianiense18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Paulo
1.54
Atletico Goianiense
0.75

Sao Paulo creates 105% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sao Paulo
2.21
Atletico Goianiense
1.00

allows per match

Sao Paulo
0.50
Atletico Goianiense
0.88

finishing

Sao Paulo+0.00on par
Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo ↓

Atletico Goianiense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sao Paulo or draw
82%
Sao Paulo or Atletico Goianiense
74%
Draw or Atletico Goianiense
44%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo wins by 2+
30%
Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sao Paulo 1+ goals
79%
Sao Paulo 2+ goals
45%
Sao Paulo 3+ goals
20%
Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals
53%
Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals
17%
Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)
76%
Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo attack 2.21 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.54

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.00 + Sao Paulo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sao Paulo scores more
56%
level
26%
Atletico Goianiense scores more
18%

Sao Paulo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
Igor ViniciusSao PauloSao Paulo · D
8.2

Match Events

4'
Patrick
17'
Wanderson
17'
Pablo Maia← G. Neves
57'
Léo Pereira← Jorginho
63'
Patrick↳ Alisson
66'
Jefferson
72'
Hayner← Dudu
79'
Talles Costa← Rodrigo Nestor
80'
G. Galoppo← Alisson
87'
Ricardinho← D. Churín
87'
Shaylon← Edson Fernando
88'
Juan← Patrick
120+1'
ReinaldoPenalty
120+2'
Wellington RatoPenalty
120+3'
J. CalleriPenalty
120+4'
Gabriel BaralhasMissed penalty
120+5'
LucianoMissed penalty
120+6'
ShaylonPenalty
120+7'
Igor ViniciusPenalty
120+8'
Léo PereiraMissed penalty
120+9'
G. GaloppoPenalty

Possession

60%Sao

Shots

29Sao

Pass accuracy

53%Sao

Statistics

SaoAtletico
Overview
60%Possession40%
29Total Shots6
8Corners4
9Fouls6
Shots
29Total Shots6
9On Target1
13Off Target4
7Blocked1
21Inside Box3
8Outside Box3
Passing
60%Possession40%
502Total Passes340
435Accurate Passes258
87%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
9Fouls6
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Sao Paulo 2–0 Atletico Goianiense

Sao Paulo beat Atletico Goianiense 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on September 9, 2022.

Goals: Patrick (4', 63'), Reinaldo (120+1' pen), Wellington Rato (120+2' pen), J. Calleri (120+3' pen), Shaylon (120+6' pen), Igor Vinicius (120+7' pen), G. Galoppo (120+9' pen).

Sao Paulo controlled possession (60%) and registered 29 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo in São Paulo, São Paulo.