Santiago Wanderers 2–2 D. Melipilla: Result & Stats

Santiago Wanderers

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

D. Melipilla

9/6/2022

Primera B · Round 27Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Santiago Wanderers48%

×Draw26%

D. Melipilla26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santiago WanderersExpected goals in this matchD. Melipilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.06

Santiago Wanderers

1.52

D. Melipilla

1.06

Santiago Wanderers creates 43% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 52 away

1.61

creates per match

1.04

1.08

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Santiago Wanderers

1.61

D. Melipilla

1.04

allows per match

Santiago Wanderers

1.08

D. Melipilla

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Wanderers ↓

D. Melipilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Santiago Wanderers or draw

74%

Santiago Wanderers or D. Melipilla

74%

Draw or D. Melipilla

52%

Winning margin

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+

24%

D. Melipilla wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals

78%

Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals

45%

Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals

20%

D. Melipilla 1+ goals

65%

D. Melipilla 2+ goals

29%

D. Melipilla 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)

64%

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Wanderers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.08 · 92 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.61 + D. Melipilla defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

D. Melipilla attack 1.04 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Santiago Wanderers scores more

48%

level

26%

D. Melipilla scores more

26%

Santiago Wanderers at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Santiago Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff