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Santiago Wanderers vs D. Melipilla — Primera División 2018

Santiago Wanderers
Santiago Wanderers
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
5/9/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 7Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Santiago Wanderers44%
×Draw25%
D. Melipilla31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santiago Wanderers
1.54
D. Melipilla
1.26

Santiago Wanderers creates 22% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 16 away

creates per match

Santiago Wanderers
1.21
D. Melipilla
1.00

allows per match

Santiago Wanderers
1.52
D. Melipilla
1.88

finishing

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par
D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Wanderers ↓

D. Melipilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Santiago Wanderers or draw
69%
Santiago Wanderers or D. Melipilla
75%
Draw or D. Melipilla
56%

Winning margin

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+
22%
D. Melipilla wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals
79%
Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals
45%
Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals
20%
D. Melipilla 1+ goals
72%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
36%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)
58%
D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Wanderers at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.52 · 33 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.21 + D. Melipilla defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.54

D. Melipilla attack 1.00 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Santiago Wanderers scores more
44%
level
25%
D. Melipilla scores more
31%

Santiago Wanderers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Santiago Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santiago Wanderers vs D. Melipilla

D. Melipilla beat Santiago Wanderers 3-0 in Primera División on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander in Valparaíso.