D. Melipilla 1–1 Santiago Wanderers: Result & Stats

D. Melipilla

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Santiago Wanderers

10/4/2021

Primera División · Round 24Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

D. Melipilla50%

×Draw25%

Santiago Wanderers25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. MelipillaExpected goals in this matchSantiago Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.05

D. Melipilla

1.58

Santiago Wanderers

1.05

D. Melipilla creates 50% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 33 away

1.44

creates per match

0.79

1.31

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

D. Melipilla

1.44

Santiago Wanderers

0.79

allows per match

D. Melipilla

1.31

Santiago Wanderers

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Santiago Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw

75%

D. Melipilla or Santiago Wanderers

75%

Draw or Santiago Wanderers

50%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+

26%

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals

79%

D. Melipilla 2+ goals

47%

D. Melipilla 3+ goals

21%

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals

65%

Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals

28%

Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)

66%

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Santiago Wanderers away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.44 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.58

Santiago Wanderers attack 0.79 + D. Melipilla defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

D. Melipilla scores more

50%

level

25%

Santiago Wanderers scores more

25%

D. Melipilla at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff