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D. Melipilla vs Santiago Wanderers — Primera B 2018

D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Santiago Wanderers
Santiago Wanderers
7/29/2019Primera BPrimera B · Round 16Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida (Santiago de Chile)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

D. Melipilla42%
×Draw28%
Santiago Wanderers29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Melipilla
1.27
Santiago Wanderers
1.01

D. Melipilla creates 26% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 94 away

creates per match

D. Melipilla
1.25
Santiago Wanderers
1.16

allows per match

D. Melipilla
0.87
Santiago Wanderers
1.29

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par
Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Santiago Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw
71%
D. Melipilla or Santiago Wanderers
72%
Draw or Santiago Wanderers
58%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+
19%
Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals
72%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
36%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
14%
Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals
64%
Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals
27%
Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
59%
Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.87 · 55 matches

Santiago Wanderers away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.29 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.25 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.16 + D. Melipilla defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

D. Melipilla scores more
42%
level
28%
Santiago Wanderers scores more
29%

D. Melipilla at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: D. Melipilla 2–1 Santiago Wanderers

D. Melipilla beat Santiago Wanderers 2-1 in Primera B on July 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida (Santiago de Chile).