Sandefjord 4–3 Haugesund: Result & Stats

Sandefjord

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Haugesund

E. Marković 90+4' (pen)

J. Dunsby 38', 34'

L. Mettler 24'

P. Bizoza 73'

Bruno Leite 47'

S. Liseth 23'

7/28/2024

Eliteserien · Round 16Jotun Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Sandefjord50%

×Draw23%

Haugesund27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SandefjordExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.25

Sandefjord

1.79

Haugesund

1.25

Sandefjord creates 43% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 15 away

1.37

creates per match

1.25

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Sandefjord

1.37

Haugesund

1.25

allows per match

Sandefjord

1.25

Haugesund

2.20

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Sandefjord+0.26scores more

Haugesund-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandefjord ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sandefjord or draw

73%

Sandefjord or Haugesund

77%

Draw or Haugesund

50%

Winning margin

Sandefjord wins by 2+

27%

Haugesund wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sandefjord 1+ goals

83%

Sandefjord 2+ goals

53%

Sandefjord 3+ goals

26%

Haugesund 1+ goals

71%

Haugesund 2+ goals

36%

Haugesund 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sandefjord (draw refunded)

65%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandefjord at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.25 · 27 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandefjord attack 1.37 + Haugesund defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.79

Haugesund attack 1.25 + Sandefjord defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sandefjord scores more

50%

level

23%

Haugesund scores more

27%

Sandefjord at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sandefjord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

J. Dunsby

Sandefjord · M

9.3

Match Events

23'

S. Liseth↳ M. Konradsen

24'

L. Mettler↳ J. Dunsby

34'

J. Dunsby↳ S. Mørk

38'

J. Dunsby↳ A. Tveter

46'

P. Bizoza← M. Sauer

46'

Bruno Leite← A. Lúðvíksson

47'

Bruno Leite↳ S. Liseth

67'

S. Diarra← S. Liseth

69'

S. Sigurðarson← A. Tveter

73'

P. Bizoza↳ J. Eskesen

76'

Parfait Bizoza

78'

F. Loftesnes-Bjune← F. Berglie

78'

M. Melchior← L. Mettler

79'

Julius Eskesen

79'

T. Nyhammer← M. Konradsen

86'

S. Innvær← S. Tounekti

87'

Anders Baertelsen

90+4'

E. MarkovićPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SandefjordHaugesund

Overview

48%Possession52%

22Total Shots17

7Corners3

14Fouls11

Shots

22Total Shots17

6On Target9

11Off Target7

5Blocked1

16Inside Box8

6Outside Box9

Passing

48%Possession52%

395Total Passes438

329Accurate Passes374

83%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls11

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

Eliteserien: Sandefjord 4–3 Haugesund

Sandefjord beat Haugesund 4-3 in Eliteserien on July 28, 2024.

Goals: S. Liseth (23'), L. Mettler (24'), J. Dunsby (34', 38'), Bruno Leite (47'), P. Bizoza (73'), E. Marković (90+4' pen).

Haugesund controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 22.

The match was played at Jotun Arena in Sandefjord.

Sandefjord vs Haugesund — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Sandefjord 4–3 Haugesund