Haugesund 2–3 Sandefjord: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Sandefjord

T. Nyhammer 59'

S. Diarra 45' (pen)

F. Pedersen 81'

S. I. Sigurdarson 32'

C. Cheng 20'

9/29/2025

Eliteserien · Round 23Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Haugesund38%

×Draw25%

Sandefjord37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchSandefjord

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.38

Haugesund

1.41

Sandefjord

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 35 away

1.05

creates per match

1.37

1.39

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Haugesund

1.05

Sandefjord

1.37

allows per match

Haugesund

1.39

Sandefjord

1.76

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Haugesund-0.05on par

Sandefjord+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Sandefjord →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

63%

Haugesund or Sandefjord

75%

Draw or Sandefjord

62%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

18%

Sandefjord wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

76%

Haugesund 2+ goals

41%

Haugesund 3+ goals

17%

Sandefjord 1+ goals

75%

Sandefjord 2+ goals

40%

Sandefjord 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

51%

Sandefjord (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.39 · 15 matches

Sandefjord away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.76 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.05 + Sandefjord defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sandefjord attack 1.37 + Haugesund defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Haugesund scores more

38%

level

25%

Sandefjord scores more

37%

Haugesund at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

C. Cheng

Sandefjord · D

7.9

Match Events

5'

9'

16'

20'

32'

S. I. Sigurdarson↳ C. Cheng

45'

S. DiarraPenalty

59'

T. Nyhammer↳ A. Grindhaug

62'

Loris Mettler

62'

I. Camara← M. Hope

62'

L. Eide← P. Bizoza

74'

H. V. Karlsen← S. Diarra

81'

F. Pedersen

85'

F. A. Jakobsen← T. Nyhammer

87'

Filip Ottosson

88'

E. Pettersen← R. Dzabic

89'

V. Egeli← L. Mettler

90+2'

S. Mathisen← E. Patoulidis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundSandefjord

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots17

1.81Expected Goals (xG)1.21

1Corners6

13Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots17

6On Target6

3Off Target6

0Blocked5

4Inside Box9

5Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

459Total Passes537

362Accurate Passes446

79%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1