Haugesund 2–1 Sandefjord: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sandefjord

C. Niyukuri 81'

J. Eskesen 64' (pen)

A. Tveter 50'

5/26/2024

Eliteserien · Round 10Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Haugesund38%

×Draw25%

Sandefjord37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchSandefjord

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.38

Haugesund

1.41

Sandefjord

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 35 away

1.05

creates per match

1.37

1.39

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Haugesund

1.05

Sandefjord

1.37

allows per match

Haugesund

1.39

Sandefjord

1.76

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Haugesund-0.05on par

Sandefjord+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Sandefjord →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

63%

Haugesund or Sandefjord

75%

Draw or Sandefjord

62%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

18%

Sandefjord wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

76%

Haugesund 2+ goals

41%

Haugesund 3+ goals

17%

Sandefjord 1+ goals

75%

Sandefjord 2+ goals

40%

Sandefjord 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

51%

Sandefjord (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.39 · 15 matches

Sandefjord away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.76 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.05 + Sandefjord defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sandefjord attack 1.37 + Haugesund defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Haugesund scores more

38%

level

25%

Sandefjord scores more

37%

Haugesund at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

C. Niyukuri

Haugesund · D

7.9

Match Events

25'

Sory Diarra

31'

Morten Agnes KonradsenPenalty cancelled

50'

A. Tveter↳ Danilo Al Saed

62'

Bruno Leite← A. Lúðvíksson

62'

S. Liseth← S. Diarra

62'

S. Innvær← S. Tounekti

64'

J. EskesenPenalty

74'

E. Marković← Danilo Al Saed

74'

L. Mettler← S. Mørk

75'

M. Hope← O. Krusnell

75'

T. Nyhammer← M. Konradsen

78'

81'

83'

84'

85'

85'

86'

89'

S. Mathisen← A. Tveter

90+6'

Troy Nyhammer

90+6'

Troy Nyhammer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundSandefjord

Overview

50%Possession50%

7Total Shots14

0.88Expected Goals (xG)1.72

7Corners2

9Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots14

3On Target5

1Off Target5

3Blocked4

3Inside Box12

4Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

436Total Passes434

343Accurate Passes354

79%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls9

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Haugesund vs Sandefjord

Haugesund beat Sandefjord 2-1 in Eliteserien on May 26, 2024.

Goals: A. Tveter (50'), J. Eskesen (64' pen), C. Niyukuri (81').

Haugesund controlled possession (50%) and registered 7 shots to 14.

The match was played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Haugesund.

Haugesund vs Sandefjord — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Haugesund vs Sandefjord