Sandefjord 2–2 Haugesund: Result & Stats

Sandefjord

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Haugesund

W. Kurtović 90+1'

H. Singh 89'

C. Zafeiris 24'

J. Eskesen 20'

11/13/2022

Eliteserien · Round 30Release Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Sandefjord51%

×Draw23%

Haugesund26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SandefjordExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.25

Sandefjord

1.85

Haugesund

1.25

Sandefjord creates 48% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 30 away

1.35

creates per match

1.07

1.44

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Sandefjord

1.35

Haugesund

1.07

allows per match

Sandefjord

1.44

Haugesund

2.36

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Sandefjord+0.40scores more

Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandefjord ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sandefjord or draw

74%

Sandefjord or Haugesund

77%

Draw or Haugesund

49%

Winning margin

Sandefjord wins by 2+

29%

Haugesund wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sandefjord 1+ goals

84%

Sandefjord 2+ goals

55%

Sandefjord 3+ goals

28%

Haugesund 1+ goals

71%

Haugesund 2+ goals

36%

Haugesund 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sandefjord (draw refunded)

66%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandefjord at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandefjord attack 1.35 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.85

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Sandefjord defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sandefjord scores more

51%

level

23%

Haugesund scores more

26%

Sandefjord at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sandefjord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Zafeiris

Haugesund · M

8.6

Match Events

17'

Christos Zafeiris

20'

J. Eskesen↳ C. Zafeiris

24'

46'

60'

61'

73'

B. Njie← M. Sande

77'

Mohamed Ofkir

79'

M. Samuelsen← A. Søderlund

83'

Féderico Bikoro← Rufo

83'

S. Gussiås← Q. Jansen

89'

H. Singh

90+5'

Sivert Gussias

90+2'

S. Tounekti← C. Zafeiris

90+1'

W. Kurtović↳ M. Ofkir

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SandefjordHaugesund

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots20

9Corners4

10Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots20

6On Target4

5Off Target8

2Blocked8

10Inside Box12

3Outside Box8

Passing

44%Possession56%

344Total Passes458

235Accurate Passes358

68%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides5