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Sandefjord vs Haugesund — Eliteserien 2026

Sandefjord
Sandefjord
CANC
16:00
Haugesund
Haugesund
4/11/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 2Sandefjord Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Sandefjord51%
×Draw23%
Haugesund26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandefjord
1.85
Haugesund
1.25

Sandefjord creates 48% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sandefjord
1.35
Haugesund
1.07

allows per match

Sandefjord
1.44
Haugesund
2.36

finishing

Sandefjord+0.40scores more
Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandefjord ↓

Haugesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sandefjord or draw
74%
Sandefjord or Haugesund
77%
Draw or Haugesund
49%

Winning margin

Sandefjord wins by 2+
29%
Haugesund wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sandefjord 1+ goals
84%
Sandefjord 2+ goals
55%
Sandefjord 3+ goals
28%
Haugesund 1+ goals
71%
Haugesund 2+ goals
36%
Haugesund 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sandefjord (draw refunded)
66%
Haugesund (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandefjord at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandefjord attack 1.35 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.85

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Sandefjord defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sandefjord scores more
51%
level
23%
Haugesund scores more
26%

Sandefjord at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sandefjord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sandefjord vs Haugesund — Match Preview

Sandefjord face Haugesund on April 11, 2021 in this Eliteserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sandefjord host Haugesund at Sandefjord Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.