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San Martin S.J. vs River Plate — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
River Plate
River Plate
F. Mastantuono 69'
Miguel Borja 56'
2/23/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 7Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

San Martin S.J.37%
×Draw33%
River Plate30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martin S.J.
0.96
River Plate
0.83

San Martin S.J. creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

creates per match

San Martin S.J.
0.89
River Plate
0.73

allows per match

San Martin S.J.
0.94
River Plate
1.02

finishing

San Martin S.J.-0.09on par
River Plate+0.07on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin S.J. ↓

River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

San Martin S.J. or draw
70%
San Martin S.J. or River Plate
67%
Draw or River Plate
63%

Winning margin

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
14%
River Plate wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
62%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
25%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
7%
River Plate 1+ goals
56%
River Plate 2+ goals
20%
River Plate 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
55%
River Plate (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin S.J. at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

River Plate away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin S.J. attack 0.89 + River Plate defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.96

River Plate attack 0.73 + San Martin S.J. defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

San Martin S.J. scores more
37%
level
33%
River Plate scores more
30%

San Martin S.J. at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "San Martin S.J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
G. MontielRiver PlateRiver Plate · D
7.7

Match Events

37'
H. Lopes← E. Burgos
46'
S. Driussi← G. Tapia
46'
Miguel Borja← F. Colidio
56'
Miguel Borja↳ P. Martinez
65'
M. Lanzini← S. Simon
65'
F. Mastantuono← P. Martinez
66'
S. Jaurena← N. Watson
67'
A. Portillo← T. Fernandez
67'
S. Gonzalez← J. Cavallaro
69'
F. Mastantuono↳ G. Montiel
75'
E. Perez
77'
E. Pernia← A. Molina
78'
M. Kranevitter← E. Perez
84'
L. Martinez Quarta

Possession

34%San

Shots

13San

Pass accuracy

43%San

Statistics

SanRiver
Overview
34%Possession66%
13Total Shots13
6Corners6
18Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots13
3On Target4
6Off Target3
4Blocked6
8Inside Box6
5Outside Box7
Passing
34%Possession66%
205Total Passes418
117Accurate Passes319
57%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls13
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: San Martin S.J. vs River Plate

River Plate beat San Martin S.J. 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on February 23, 2025.

Goals: Miguel Borja (56'), F. Mastantuono (69').

River Plate controlled possession (66%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez in San Juan.