River Plate 4–1 San Martin S.J.: Result & Stats

River Plate

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

San Martin S.J.

G. Martínez 72' (pen)

R. Mora 50', 23'

C. Mayada 35'

F. Erpen 53'

9/15/2018

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 5El Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

River Plate57%

×Draw25%

San Martin S.J.18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River PlateExpected goals in this matchSan Martin S.J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.76

River Plate

1.58

San Martin S.J.

0.76

River Plate creates 108% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 9 away

1.92

creates per match

0.77

0.75

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

River Plate

1.92

San Martin S.J.

0.77

allows per match

River Plate

0.75

San Martin S.J.

1.25

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

River Plate+0.13scores more

San Martin S.J.-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

San Martin S.J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

River Plate or draw

82%

River Plate or San Martin S.J.

75%

Draw or San Martin S.J.

43%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+

30%

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals

79%

River Plate 2+ goals

47%

River Plate 3+ goals

21%

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals

53%

San Martin S.J. 2+ goals

18%

San Martin S.J. 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)

76%

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 21 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.92 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.58

San Martin S.J. attack 0.77 + River Plate defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

River Plate scores more

57%

level

25%

San Martin S.J. scores more

18%

River Plate at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

R. Mora

River Plate · F

8.4

Match Events

23'

Claudio Mosca

23'

R. Mora↳ L. Pratto

35'

C. Mayada

46'

E. Palacios← I. Fernández

50'

53'

53'

60'

63'

G. Martínez← I. Scocco

63'

R. Borré← L. Pratto

67'

Nicolas Da Campo

67'

D. Cardozo← F. Cristaldo

69'

Rafael Santos Borré

72'

G. MartínezPenalty

77'

Matías Fissore← N. Solís

77'

G. Villarruel← G. Castillejos

81'

Javier Pinola

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RiverSan

Overview

64%Possession36%

12Total Shots18

7Corners10

12Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots18

4On Target6

4Off Target8

4Blocked4

11Inside Box11

1Outside Box7

Passing

64%Possession36%

539Total Passes275

441Accurate Passes188

82%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

5Offsides4