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River Plate vs San Martin S.J. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

River Plate
River Plate
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
F. Pumpido 51'
8/17/2015Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 20El Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

River Plate57%
×Draw25%
San Martin S.J.18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Plate
1.58
San Martin S.J.
0.76

River Plate creates 108% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 9 away

creates per match

River Plate
1.92
San Martin S.J.
0.77

allows per match

River Plate
0.75
San Martin S.J.
1.25

finishing

River Plate+0.13scores more
San Martin S.J.-0.10scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

San Martin S.J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

River Plate or draw
82%
River Plate or San Martin S.J.
75%
Draw or San Martin S.J.
43%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+
30%
San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals
79%
River Plate 2+ goals
47%
River Plate 3+ goals
21%
San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
53%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
18%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)
76%
San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 21 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.92 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.58

San Martin S.J. attack 0.77 + River Plate defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

River Plate scores more
57%
level
25%
San Martin S.J. scores more
18%

River Plate at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
Daniel González
48'
Facundo Pumpido
51'
F. Pumpido↳ M. Figueroa
54'
Daniel González
54'
Daniel González
55'
Damian Ledesma
56'
Luis Ardente
56'
E. Martínez← M. Figueroa
59'
S. Driussi← G. Mercado
63'
L. Pisculichi← M. Kranevitter
70'
P. Vitti← F. Pumpido
73'
L. Boyé← J. Saviola
77'
Pablo Vitti
80'
D. Franco← J. Gómez

Possession

56%River

Shots

15River

Statistics

RiverSan
Overview
56%Possession44%
15Total Shots5
11Corners4
11Fouls10
Shots
15Total Shots5
7On Target2
8Off Target3
Passing
56%Possession44%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
11Fouls10
0Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
3Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: River Plate 0–1 San Martin S.J.

San Martin S.J. beat River Plate 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 17, 2015.

Goals: F. Pumpido (51').

River Plate controlled possession (56%) and registered 15 shots to 5.

The match was played at El Monumental in Buenos Aires.