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River Plate vs San Martin S.J. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

River Plate
River Plate
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
M. Salas 21'
S. Lencina 17'
8/31/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 7Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

River Plate57%
×Draw26%
San Martin S.J.17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Plate
1.52
San Martin S.J.
0.71

River Plate creates 114% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

creates per match

River Plate
1.92
San Martin S.J.
0.67

allows per match

River Plate
0.75
San Martin S.J.
1.12

finishing

River Plate+0.13scores more
San Martin S.J.-0.17scores less

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

San Martin S.J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

River Plate or draw
83%
River Plate or San Martin S.J.
74%
Draw or San Martin S.J.
43%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+
30%
San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals
78%
River Plate 2+ goals
45%
River Plate 3+ goals
20%
San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
51%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
16%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)
77%
San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 21 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.12 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.92 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.52

San Martin S.J. attack 0.67 + River Plate defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

River Plate scores more
57%
level
26%
San Martin S.J. scores more
17%

River Plate at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. SalasRiver PlateRiver Plate · F
8.0

Match Events

17'
S. Lencina↳ I. Subiabre
21'
M. Salas↳ M. Casco
45+2'
Santiago Lencina
50'
Luciano Recalde
61'
D. Gonzalez← H. Tijanovich
62'
M. Iacobellis← S. Jaurena
67'
M. Galarza← S. Lencina
67'
J. Meza← J. Quintero
67'
B. Dadin← I. Subiabre
72'
Juan Portillo
75'
Miguel Borja← M. Salas
76'
Pablo Garcia← S. Gonzalez
76'
F. Toloza← I. Maestro
78'
Kevin Castaño
81'
Lucas Martínez Quarta
84'
J. Menendez← S. Salle

Possession

62%River

Shots

12River

Pass accuracy

53%River

Statistics

RiverSan
Overview
62%Possession38%
12Total Shots13
1.00Expected Goals (xG)0.60
8Corners4
19Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots13
7On Target4
3Off Target8
2Blocked1
10Inside Box10
2Outside Box3
Passing
62%Possession38%
530Total Passes322
442Accurate Passes243
83%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
0.53Goals Prevented0.53
Discipline
19Fouls10
4Yellow Cards1
0Offsides4

Match Recap: River Plate vs San Martin S.J.

River Plate beat San Martin S.J. 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 31, 2025.

Goals: S. Lencina (17'), M. Salas (21').

River Plate controlled possession (62%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Buenos Aires.